Newbury 5:17 Verdict

Huge field of 30 makes this tricky, but Interstate stands out. Lightly raced Godolphin colt by Palace Pier, form reads 02-221 - won last time out and has been progressive all season, finishing runner-up on debut then stringing together placed/winning efforts against similar handicap company. Weighted top at 133lbs with an OR of 83, he's clearly held in regard by a top yard, and Buick riding for Gosden suggests confidence. Three-year-olds with rising ratings often have more improvement in them than the older, more exposed handicappers in this field like Parlando, Sweet Reward or Mohaaraj who are already fully forgiven for their marks. His recent runs came at competitive level and the upward trajectory (2-2-1) suggests he's not done improving, unlike some of the older geldings whose recent form has plateaued or is patchy (Time Loop 2-4844, Dark Whisper freshened after 50 days off). The 1m2f trip suits and he looks the type to still be ahead of the handicapper. Law Court and River Card are also interesting unexposed three-year-olds but Interstate's recent scoring run and the yard's strength give him the edge. In a maximum-field cavalry charge, having genuine untapped potential is the biggest asset, and Interstate offers that while being sensibly weighted relative to more exposed rivals at similar marks.