Southwell (AW) 8:00 Result

This is a messy 5f AW handicap but Havin A Flyer stands out on recent form - 332134, consistently competitive and won last time out just 14 days ago, clearly progressive and fit. She carries a light-ish weight (131lbs, OR51) relative to the top-weights El Ghuwah and Hvar (OR55) who both have inconsistent recent form (534 and 007090 respectively - Hvar in particular looks well held on recent starts). De Sousa taking the ride is a positive booking for a yard (Menzies) that clearly has this filly fit and firing. The tongue-tie stays on and she's proven at the trip and on the surface. Draw 1 is workable in a 5f AW dash. Her sire Havana Grey throws plenty of precocious sprinters that act well on AW, and her form figures show she's racing to a good level in this grade, culminating in a win. Rivals like Beach Partee (442833) and Mimime (708732) are also in-form but have been running at a lower level of finishes; Havin A Flyer's figure of a win last time from a similar batch of form makes her the most solid, progressive type in the field. I'm happy to oppose a vulnerable joint-favourite (El Ghuwah, unproven consistency, drawn wide in 10) and take the in-form filly who has more upside.