Southwell (AW) 7:00 Result

Indefensible is in career-best form, winning last time out and showing 533131 - a clear pattern of improvement culminating in a victory just 14 days ago. That win, plus a earlier 1 in the sequence, shows he's proven at winning under handicap conditions recently and is fit having run just two weeks ago. Trainer Ollie Pears' string is in form and Harry Russell takes over having presumably ridden the recent winning run. Weight of 127 is workable off a modest OR of 72 - he looks to have more upside than his rating suggests given the trajectory. Rogue Supremacy is the classy sire on paper (St Mark's Basilica) but his form figures 875593 are inconsistent and he hasn't run in 40 days - concerning for a lightly speed-tested sort dropping into a seller-type handicap. Cool Molly's 306832 is solid but her most recent 2 came in a bigger field; her placing hasn't converted to a win recently. Roi de Coeur's 651252 shows some fluctuation but the same lack of a very recent win. Sandy Craic (512235) is interesting - she won two runs back and has been holding a place since, but the 8 days since last run and dip in the form line (235) suggests she may be leveling off. Indefensible's figures trend the right way at exactly the right time, he's fresh off a win, and the drop into a small 5-runner field suits a horse with genuine racing manners and improving profile. He looks the most confident, in-form runner in this small field.