Southwell (AW) 9:00 Result

Small field of five so a strong pace angle isn't dominant; this comes down to recent form and improvement. Captain Cairney's figures read -27251, meaning he's won and been runner-up in three of his last four starts, culminating in a win last time out. He's a lightly-raced 3yo carrying just 130lbs (bottom weight bar Worlington), stepping up in trip with a pedigree (Sottsass out of a Dubawi mare) that strongly suggests he'll be even better suited by 1m6f than shorter trips he's already won/placed over. Probert takes over and the yard (Muir/Grassick) is in decent form with AW handicappers. The addition of a visor (p) on a horse already progressing suggests they're trying to sharpen him for this step up, and it looks a shrewd, forward-looking booking. Lordsbridge Grey has been well held in recent starts (3-7753) and, while Silvestre De Sousa is a boost, the horse hasn't fired since a promising early run and the headgear (blinkers) haven't sparked overt improvement. Currumbin's form figure of 3-0462 is moderate, with a 13-day turnaround suggesting fitness but no standout depth to the form. Nanny Park's 073106 is patchy — a recent last-time-out win is the highlight but the figures before that (0,7,3,1,0) are inconsistent. Worlington (224194) has been freqently placed but not winning of late, second-last time and again more recently — he looks the majoy market rival but the manner in which Captain Cairney is progressing, with the fresh trip and a leading yard/jockey combo, gives him the stronger claim to be able to defy a low weight and go one better again. Overall this looks a moderate Class 6 affair where recent scoring form and a plausible trip son of Sottsass out of a Dubawi mare should tell. I'm siding with the horse actually winning and progressing, at what should be a fair without being crazy price.