Southwell (AW) 7:00 Result

Dublin Bay's recent form reads 3-4151, culminating in a win last time out, and he's a lightly-raced 3yo still progressing with a leading yard (Sangster) and top jockey Sean Bowen booked. He carries a competitive OR of 85 off a fair mark, is drawn reasonably (6), and the addition of first-time cheekpieces (p) suggests the yard are looking to find further improvement from a horse already on an upward curve. Being by New Bay out of a War Front mare, he has the pedigree to appreciate this 7f trip on the all-weather, and his recent win shows he handles this type of surface/config well. Rivals like Fouette and Carron are fair sorts but have had decent breaks (89 and 78 days respectively) and their profiles look more exposed at this trip/class. Master Richard and Pietro are consistent without screaming 'moving forward'. Haaderr and Mr Noble are interesting 3yos but Mr Noble's odds/profile suggests the market may already be onto him, while Haaderr's price/profile is competitive too, but Dublin Bay's man-form and price look the best combination of upside and value in a race that lacks a standout, warranting a confident each-way/win bet on the improving type.