Goodwood 2:40 Result

Two Tempting tops the weights on merit with an OR of 97, clearly the highest rating in the field. His recent form 233040 shows he's been running consistently well, with two seconds and a third in his last four before a blip, and importantly he was fresh into this after 18 days - not overraced. Portman and Hornby combo is solid, and top weight in a competitive handicap often signals real ability rather than a leniently-treated type. Gun Carriage (96 OR) is the closest on ratings but has been off 194 days and his recent form (-06444) shows fading finishes rather than progression - a query mark returning fresh without a recent workout. Tribal Chief and Oliver Show are lower rated and have had mixed recent efforts, with Oliver Show stepping up in trip questionable given his best form has been at shorter. Storm Star for Balding/Murphy is interesting but his 602085 form is patchy and he was well beaten in what looks a similar type of race last time. The likes of Racingbreaks Ryder, Darkness and Jimmy Speaking are all rated in the mid-80s, giving away significant weight to the top two - a big ask in a competitive Class 2 mile. Two Tempting looks the standout on class/form and just needs to bounce back to his沒 pattern of finishing in the frame, which he has done consistently this campaign. He looks the most solid, weight-of-numbers type in the race and represents fair value if forecast prices don't fully reflect his rating advantage.