Perth 3:22 Result

Follow Charlie is the classic in-form, well-handicapped type: form figures 4-4113 show him rounding into career-best shape with a recent win last time out, and he's raced only 16 days ago so is fresh off that form without a big let-up. He carries a competitive OR of 110, sits mid-weight in the field, and the addition of a hood (p) alongside his improving profile suggests the yard has found the key to him. Brian Hughes-ridden and Reed-partnered types aside, R. Mike Smith's yard clearly has this horse firing right now - three of his last four runs have been top-two finishes, culminating in a win. Compare that to the market principals: Caballo de Guerra hasn't run in 159 days and his last form line (44456) is modest with the layoff a concern; Tintintin's form figures (/7P9-7) are patchy with a pulled-up and a well-beaten effort in there; Bathgate has been off 186 days. Those horses look vulnerable to a fitter, in-form rival. Annie Agnew and Try Them are also in good current form (both ran 16 days ago and both have late-season placed/winning efforts), but Follow Charlie's superior class marker (OR 110 vs 108/107) and clear upward trajectory (4-4-1-1-3, i.e., a recent win sandwiched between places) give him the strongest profile of the currently-fit brigade. He looks the type to follow into a similar contest fresh from a change of luck, and the yard's confidence is evidenced by quick backup after his win. I make him clear-cut best combination of form, fitness and class edge, and expect he offers each-way and win value against those with lengthy absences.