Newcastle (AW) 7:00 Result

Great Profit carries top weight on merit with the highest OR (70) and a recent form line of -82221 showing clear progression - two wins and a second in his last three starts, all at a competitive level. He's fit having run 29 days ago and is clearly on a warm upward curve, going from mid-pack finishes to winning twice. His draw in 10 isn't ideal but with 6f at Newcastle AW, pace often comes from widish or midfield draws and doesn't heavily penalise. Weight of 135lbs is joint-top with Riley Rocks and March Ahead, but his recent scoreline of back-to-back wins outstrips both of those on current form - Riley Rocks' 160404 is stale/inconsistent and March Ahead hasn't run in over 100 days. Comprador (335306) and Sea Her Excel (031513) are the closest form rivals but both carry lower marks and less proven upward trajectory. Great Profit looks the most progressive, in-form horse in the field, trained by a yard (W H Harrison) who clearly has him primed, and Barry McHugh continuing the ride suggests continuity of tactics that have worked. The market should reflect him as a leading fancy, but his sheer recent scoreline (2-1-1) in this grade makes him the horse to beat rather than a false-priced favourite.