Newcastle (AW) 4:45 Result

Small four-runner field with a clear class gap. Niffler is the highest-rated (OR 58) and has won two of his last three, including his latest start, with recent form reading 89011 - two wins on the bounce. He's clearly progressive at 3yo and race fit having run just 10 days ago. Ada Rose (OR 57) is the obvious market rival with a similar profile and won at some point in her 739162 sequence, but her recent finishing positions (6,2) show more inconsistency than Niffler's clean-cut last two victories. Star Of Markinch (OR 45) and Lilykoy (OR 45) are both stone cold outsiders on official ratings, well below the front two, with Star Of Markinch's form figures (044454) showing nothing but modest finishes and Lilykoy similarly held on assessed ability. This is essentially a two-horse race between Niffler and Ada Rose, and Niffler's superior mark plus the fact he's actually won his last two starts (rather than being found out at a step up or fading) gives him the stronger claim. Sir Mark Prescott is a shrewd, patient trainer who doesn't campaign horses without intent, and the booking of an apprentice suggests they're happy with a lighter weight package to maximise the winning sequence. I'll side with the horse in the form and rating box over the make-or-break outsiders, and prefer Niffler's cleaner recent figures to Ada Rose in a match-up race.