Navan 4:49 Result

Big 18-runner handicap so pace/traffic will matter, but Chicago Moon looks the classiest and most progressive type in the field. She's by Sea The Moon out of a Henry de Bromhead yard that knows how to place fillies, carries a solid OR of 66 (highest bar the two 70s), and her recent form figures 937514 show a filly building into this with a clear recent win (the "1") sandwiched by consistent placed efforts against similar/stronger company. W J Lee taking the ride is a positive booking from a stable with strong course/trip form. Ran just 6 days ago, suggesting she's fit, fresh and the trainer is happy with her, and De Bromhead often follows a good run quickly. The two 70-rated top-weights (Essential Comedy, Parish Team, Sunrush) are unproven at fully stepping up or have had inconsistent recent efforts (Parish Team 8800, Sunrush 74-653 - the middle stat suggests decent but not conclusive). Essential Comedy's 653 with a recent run 12 days ago is workmanlike but she hasn't shown the turn of foot Chicago Moon has flashed. At 1m6f, stamina matters, and Sea The Moon stock (also seen with stablemate Mare Crisium) tend to appreciate a genuine test of stamina, which suits a filly who's already shown she stays and quickens. Draw 12 is workable in a race of this depth. I make her the most complete profile: fit, in-form, well-bred for the trip, competent handler, right off a good run. Market likely to price her mid-pack given two 70s at the top, offering some value on a filly who I think is the true form horse in the race.