Listowel 2:48 Result

Small field of five where the Gavin Cromwell/Robcour-owned mare Le Nez Creux stands out. Her form figures 3152-5 show a recent win and consistent placing at a good level, and Cromwell's operation with Robcour typically targets these mares' hurdle races with well-prepared types. Keith Donoghue takes the ride, a rider who knows the Cromwell string well. 49 days since her last run is a sensible gap, not a concern given she's lightly campaigned and fresh. Majestic Force has a big absence (505 days) and while she has solid form figures from before, that length of a layoff for an 8-year-old is a real query, especially returning at this trip against fitter rivals. Easter Bonnet for Mullins has decent recent placed form (P-0414) but hasn't shown the scoring power yet this campaign, and stepping up in class/company here is unproven. Tumbling In (43-331) is progressive and the form up to a win last time is respectable, but 150lbs level with Mullins/Cromwell rivals may find this tough - she's the most obvious market rival to my selection. Sea Coral is unexposed with barely any form to go on (just "/-"), a big risk in a competitive mares' event, though the covered signs (headgear added) suggest connections think she needs it, which is not overly confidence-inspiring for the debut/lightly raced type at this level. Overall, Le Nez Creux's recent form figures showing a win and consistent placing, allied to a shrewd training operation and suitable spacing, give her the best combination of proven ability and freshness in this small, likely well-run race. I'm going with her as the most reliable and shrewdly placed runner, expecting her class and recent placings to see her prove hard to beat in a shortish field.