Kilbeggan 4:42 Result

Hopes Are High carries top weight on the highest OR (124) in the field, but that's because he's earned it: form figures 1312- show he's been running away with races, winning twice and never out of the first three in his last four starts. He's a lightly-raced 4yo still open to improvement, unlike most of these established handicappers who are fully or over the top of their marks (My Trump Card, Eye Of A Tiger, Free Flow all show poor recent form figures littered with mid/low finishes). 37 days off is a sensible break rather than a worry, and trainer Durkan/jockey Byrnes will have targeted this. Splashing Out (120 OR, McManus-owned) is the obvious market rival with a strong recent 7-3101 sequence and blinkers, but she's a mare stepping up in class/company here and has more to find with the top-rated horse on official figures. Cocofred (De Bromhead, 117 OR) is interesting on a solid yard but hasn't run in 60 days and his level hasn't matched Hopes Are High's. Speisialta's form includes a refusal (R) which is a concerning blot. Given the clear class edge on ratings and improving profile, Hopes Are High looks the one to beat and should start favourite or close to it — I'm happy to back a horse whose figures genuinely justify market respect rather than fade the favourite here.