Kilbeggan 4:07 Result

This is a typical sprawling 17-runner Irish maiden hurdle full of unexposed and lightly-raced sorts, so best to side with the runner carrying the highest official rating and most consistent placed form. Dawn Coming (OR116) has been running well in defeat, with a string of placed efforts (223-34) against similar/stronger maiden hurdle company, suggesting he's simply crying out to get his head in front. Trained by Colin Byrnes and ridden by conditional Philip Byrnes (stable connection), he arrives without a huge layoff (39 days) and his rating dwarfs the rest of this field bar Texas Red and Astelia. He's a gelding by Make Believe out of a Dawn Approach mare - speed and hurdling aptitude should be there, and the tongue-tie suggests they're sharpening him up for this. Texas Red (OR104) and Astelia (OR102) are the market alternatives, but Texas Red is stepping up in grade/trip questions remain and he ran only yesterday, while Astelia's form figures (0-222P) show she constantly finds one better and the P suggests a change of tune (pulled up) last time. Dawn Coming's rating advantage of 12lb+ over the next best in a race full of maidens with modest or no ratings is a significant, quantifiable edge, and I'm happy to take a stand on the horse who looks the most solid on assessed ability while the market likely gets swayed by the profile of the 17-runner field or recent-run runners like Texas Red/Scotty Joe who both ran just yesterday and could be gambled on the back of that run - but that quick backup can just as easily go against them here. Dawn Coming for the win.