Kempton (AW) 3:20 Result

Moonrise's form figures 1-2-1 mask an improving profile - she's won twice from three starts and was only beaten a short head in her one defeat, all while carrying a rising level of form. She has the highest ceiling on unexposed potential in this field given the pattern of her runs, and the booking of Oisin Murphy for Andrew Balding is a major stable-confidence signal - Balding rarely wastes a top jockey booking on a moderate one. The 42-day break suggests she's been freshened for this Group 3 target, which fits a yard planning a black-type raid. Her draw of 9 is wide but at Kempton's straight 6f AW course, wide draws are not a major handicap and can even be advantageous for a filly who can be niggled along early. Adaay of Scarlett looks the more obvious form pick with figures of 122225 and joint-highest OR of 106, but that string of seconds (122225) hints at knocking on the door without quite finishing the job - vulnerable at a shorter price. Agamemnon's form (618324) is progressive but inconsistent, and Social Symbol/Tawakal are unproven at this festival level. Moonrise's unbeaten-bar-one profile, quality of connections and the booking of Murphy over more obvious senior jockeys on paper make her the value angle in a race where the market likely underrates a filly with a lower profile of runs but a higher win-strike-rate.