Kempton (AW) 2:20 Result

The Liffey's recent form line 115112 is outstanding - four wins from his last five starts with the only blemish a 5th. That kind of relentless winning sequence in a competitive handicap suggests a genuine progressive type who is thriving right now, not a horse merely holding form. Rossa Ryan takes the ride, a booking that signals confidence, and the tb (tongue-tie/blinkers combo) headgear addition may be aiding focus given the improvement. His OR of 91 puts him mid-pack on ratings but his recent scoring suggests he's now better than that mark, and handicappers are often behind horses on a hot streak like this. Draw 1 is workable at Kempton's mile, allowing him to sit close to a likely honest pace without being caught wide. Compare to the market principals: Two Tempting (98) and Popmaster (96) carry big weight and are the classy old campaigners, but Two Tempting's recent form (-23304) is mixed with a stack of non-wins, while Popmaster (270446) hasn't won in a long while and looks to be treading water. Victory Ace (265111) is another in-form type but is a lightly-raced 3-y-o stepping up in grade/class against experienced older sprinters-turned-milers, and his profile suggests he's yet to prove he handles this level of competition and can be vulnerable to a leery gate draw (7) — still a threat, but The Liffey's price/form combination looks the better relative value given the model suggests he's underrated on official marks. Cavolo Nero (-23411) is also in-form but hasn't strung as many wins together. The Liffey stands out as the horse whose recent scoring most understates his true ability relative to punting price, making him the best staking opportunity in this competitive field.