Windsor 6:18 Result

Cape Fear's recent form line 232132 is the strongest in the field for consistency and improvement - he's been running against progressively tougher company and finally broke through with a win last time, then backed it up. Three-year-old taking on older, fully-exposed handicappers off a light weight (126lbs, lowest in the race) with a rising profile is a classic scenario for more improvement to come. Andrew Balding's yard is in form and Oisin Murphy takes the ride, a strong booking that signals confidence. First-time-tried/continued blinkers (p) seem to be working given the recent upward trajectory. Draw 1 over 1m3f at Windsor is workable, and the good-to-firm ground suits a fit, forward three-year-old. By contrast, Melek Alreeh and Raulin are both top-weighted at 142lbs off ORs of 85 but have had breaks (44 and 68 days respectively) and are unproven to be improving at this trip/class right now - Melek Alreeh's form figures show plenty of inconsistency (56-215) and Raulin, while progressive, has more to find at the weights against a treading-up three-year-old. Percival is respectable but hasn't shown the same scoring alacrity. Tai Hang Pegasus is interesting with a similar profile to Cape Fear (476231) but is 3lbs higher in the weights and less proven at the trip stepping up in company. Overall, Cape Fear looks the most progressive, lightly-weighted, in-form runner with a top jockey booking, offering the best combination of upside and value in a competitive, well-matched Class 4 handicap.