Thirsk 4:51 Result

Vega's Virtue's recent form line 138131 shows three wins from her last six starts, including her latest run, and she's clearly progressive at this trip. Carrying just 130lbs off an OR of 66, she looks nicely treated compared to several 69-rated rivals shouldering 138lbs. Tim Easterby's yard knows how to place fillies to win off feasible marks, and David Allan is a booking that suggests confidence. The pattern of winning, being stepped up, running well, then winning again suggests she's not overexposed and remains ahead of the handicapper. Draw 6 is workable at Thirsk over a mile. Compared to the likes of Catton Lady, Alessia Fernanda and Donna Nook, who are all rated 69 but with mixed/inconsistent recent form (Donna Nook has faded to 9th last time; Alessia Fernanda's 867267 is moderate), Vega's Virtue's recent trajectory is the most solid. Fractional (Haggas/Frankel filly) is interesting but has been running without winning since a break and steps up in class of opposition; not fancied to reverse recent placed efforts into a win here. Reader is only lightly raced with a maiden-ish profile (28-334) and unproven winning at this level. Overall, Vega's Virtue offers the best blend of proven recent winning form, favourable weight, and untapped upside — a value alternative to the more exposed, similarly-rated older mares up in weight.