Punchestown 5:13 Result

This is a wide-open 17-runner handicap but Nephin Mountain's recent form (516513) stands out clearly - a win last time plus two other wins in that sequence show consistent, current form and a horse fully in tune with the trip and going. OR 58 is fair for the level, and being lightly raced at 3yo with an upward curve suggests more improvement to come. Compare that to the likes of Casheldale Lass and Gloriously Glam who carry top weight (142lbs) off OR60 with inconsistent recent form (7-0280, 385209) - they look exposed and are taking on a topweight burden without a clear form edge. Tero d'Rosa's recent 6-4-6 finishes are moderate, and Medieval Night's 047625 is patchy. Believe Believe has an interesting overall profile (6908-2, a big last-time-out effort) but a 133-day layoff is a concern for fitness/sharpness first time back, and unknown jockey booking adds uncertainty. Nephin Mountain has run more recently (10 days ago) showing the stable is keeping him fresh and forward, with a jockey booking that suggests confidence. His draw (13) isn't ideal but with a strong pace expected in a big field, he should get cover and be able to finish his race strongly given his proven placing/winning ability in a string of recent races. He looks the most solid, in-form, weight-favoured contender in a race full of question marks, and looks overpriced relative to that recent winning form.