Perth 4:20 Result

Follow Charlie is progressive and in-form, with a recent 94-411 sequence culminating in a win last time out just 23 days ago, showing he's fit and building momentum. Carries a workable OR of 110 near the top of the handicap, but crucially has form figures showing consistent improvement rather than a one-off. The 1-4-1-1 finish pattern shows he's racing well and finding the frame or winning regularly, suggesting he's progressing at the right time. R Mike Smith's yard can operate efficiently with smaller strings, and Murray Dodd's claim (5lb) helps make the weight more workable. The step up in trip to 2m4f looks fine given his sire Court Cave typically produces stamina types, and this looks like a natural conditions match. Lets Mingle and Spit Spot both come from the powerful Russell/Scudamore stable and could go well, but Lets Mingle's form figure U-3515 shows inconsistency (an unseat and modest efforts mixed with a place), while Spit Spot's recent efforts (647P-F) are underwhelming with a fall last time. Lowlands for Nicky Richards is interesting with an in-form yard and consistent 3-1244 figures, but sits 3lb higher in the weights than Follow Charlie with less scope suggested by the profile. Follow Charlie offers the best blend of upward trajectory, fitness (ran 23 days ago, same as key market rivals), and conditions suitability. He looks the value versus the market as connections appear to be exploiting a fair mark following his recent scoring run.