Newmarket 2:27 Result

Senorita Bonita boasts the highest OR (117) of the field by a clear margin (Moonrise 109, Libertango 107, the O'Brien fillies unrated but presumably slightly below on official assessment), and her form figures 1211 show she's been consistently placed at the top level, winning her Group races impressively including a Group 2/3 sprint. Oisin Murphy takes over and the Crisford yard has been in exceptional form with 2yo sprinters this season. Her sire Starspangledbanner is a proven fast-ground 6f influence, and Good to Firm ground plays right to her strengths given her attacking, forward-going style. Sun Goddess (121111) is unbeaten in six starts and represents the big domestic threat from the powerful Ballydoyle team with Ryan Moore up, but her form has come mostly against weaker opposition in Ireland and she steps up sharply in class here; there's a question over whether she's truly tested at this level yet, and taking on a proven Group performer with a superior assessed mark is a swerve I'm not prepared to make blind. Moonrise and Libertango both have solid form (1211/1121) but are rated below Senorita Bonita and have less depth of black-type form. Snowing's 52623 figures are moderate and she looks the weakest on pure form. Alwaysanangel is interesting for O'Brien with a wind operation applied, but her feature run came in a maiden/minor context and stepping into Group 1 company here is a big ask fresh. Overall, Senorita Bonita's rating, proven scoring ability at pattern level, and course-ground suitability make her the most solid, value-adjusted selection, likely to start favourite or close to it but for good reason given the clear form/rating edge over the unexposed Ballydoyle pair.