Newcastle (AW) 5:45 Result

This is a weak-looking novice with only one runner carrying a competitive-looking mark. One of The Boys is the class benchmark here on an OR of 77, comfortably clear of Brash (64) and the three unrated/unexposed types. His form figures 2-334 show consistent placed efforts against, presumably, better company than this, and he's by Sioux Nation out of a Dark Angel mare - fast, precocious blood well suited to 6f on the all-weather. Michael Bell is a shrewd handler who wins with lightly raced sorts when dropped into more winnable races, and Jack Callan takes the ride. The runner-up/thirds suggest he's crying out for a race like this where he can finally get his head in front, and the manageable field size of five helps a horse who has shown he stays involved without quite getting over the line. Brash has the form figures (732422) of a horse who has already had plenty of chances to win without doing so, and his last two runs (2,2) show he's competitive but is now 3lb higher than his rivals in terms of exposure - he's the one to fear but is already fully touched off at this level judging by the OR gap. The three others (Elite Approach, Whatever Bruce, Janora) are all unrated and have form figures of 44, 66 and 64 respectively - nothing to suggest they're ready to defy an unexposed novice with a much higher assessed mark. Janora is a filly conceding weight allowance but her form is modest. I'm siding with the class horse dropping in company, expecting a bit of value relative to what will likely be a short-priced Brash in the market given the recent placed efforts.