Newbury 3:20 Result

This is a wide-open, unexposed 2yo novice with several newcomers, so pedigree, stable class and jockey booking matter most. Coloniser is a first-time-out colt for Brian Meehan by Siyouni out of a Galileo mare (Dosila), a strong European pedigree that should handle 7f well, and crucially he's booked with Jamie Spencer, a top-level rider who wouldn't fly in for a moderate sort. Meehan has a strong record placing well-bred first-timers to good effect first time out, and the stable clearly think enough of this colt to give him a black-type jockey on debut. Among the exposed types, Lots Road (form 86) has already shown ability finishing close in a maiden last time and is respected, but he's proven he needs to find more and is up against similarly bred fresh types here; Diamondise's 09 form is workmanlike but unconvincing. The unraced ones - Showmaster (Clive Cox, sire Showcasing) and Green Tundra (Harry Charlton) - are interesting but Coloniser's pedigree and job of a top jockey give him the edge for value in a race that lacks a standout on solid form. Draw 1 is fine for this trip at Newbury. I'll take Coloniser as the best combination of physical/pedigree profile and stable/jockey intent, at a fair price relative to the more exposed, held-up form horses who have already shown their hand and may need improvement to win rather than simply progress.