Listowel 4:00 Result

Top-weighted on OR (96) but form is rock solid and progressive: 324302 shows consistent placing/winning form with a recent run just 14 days ago, keeping her fresh and sharp. She's clearly working her way into a winning spot, with a win already this campaign and continual competitive finishes against similar/better company. Trainer J P Ryan has her fit and ready off a quick turnaround, suggesting they're chasing more black type. Compare to Its Not Over Yet (96 OR) whose form dipped and last win is older, or Pretty Wild who is interesting but unproven at this trip/class stepping up in a big 16-runner handicap on testing ground for a young filly with McManus/Bolger/Cobden angle - likely to go off short without matching assurance of this specific trip/ground combo. Shing Shang Lily has huge layoff (132 days) which is a concern. Strong Contender and Moonshine Girl both won recently but each carries questions: Strong Contender stepping up in class off a rise, Moonshine Girl's price will likely be squeezed given the identical recent win. Run For The Border's sustained placing figures (3,2,4,3,0,2) points to a genuine, tough stayer suited to this longer 2m6f trip, and the age/profile (6yo mare) fits perfectly with a mares' handicap over further ground. She looks the most reliable and progressive contender in a race full of query marks, and represents square value against the market leaders.