Listowel 1:47 Result

This looks a fairly workmanlike maiden with no proven horse for course/distance standing out hugely. Churchill Bond has the only official rating (87) and each-time-placed form (753) but is a filly conceding weight to the colts and has needed three runs without winning - the 87 suggests she's respectable but perhaps found knocking on the door rather than bursting through. Loughrea N Roll's solitary run produced a 3rd, and crucially connections are Joseph O'Brien with a Ballylinch Stud/Michael Burke owned Lope De Vega colt - a sire whose stock often improve for a run and act well at 7f as two-year-olds. A 44-day break suggests they've had time to work on him, and JP O'Brien's yard has a strong strike rate placing lightly raced sorts to good effect fresh off a break. Speakers Corner (Aidan O'Brien, wearing blinkers today) was already tried and found wanting last time (form figures 40), and the drop in confidence from that string is notable even with the O'Brien/Lordan combination. Lake Lugano, How Now and All Talk are all unproven with too many questions - All Talk has no form at all and looks the outsider on ability alone despite the powerful Gigginstown/Blue Point pedigree. On balance, Loughrea N Roll's placed effort, the potential for improvement second time out, and being from a in-form yard with a market-friendly setup gives him the nod as the one to beat Churchill Bond, who rates the market/form pick but looks bettable given she's had three attempts already and carries a filly's weight allowance disadvantage in only a maiden context. I'm siding with the improving JP O'Brien colt to turn the form around at a bigger price than the favourite.