Goodwood 5:45 Verdict

Ammoony's recent form (4-2212) shows consistent placing at a decent level, culminating in a recent win. She's a lightly-raced 3yo still on a fair mark of 79, matching top-rated Kissmehoneyhoney but with less mileage and more scope for improvement as she strengthens into this longer 1m4f trip - a stamina-laden pedigree (Zarak/Shakespearean damline stays well) suits. David Egan's booking for Tom Clover, a yard in good form, adds confidence. Kissmehoneyhoney is talented but her form figures (1-82) show recent regression and Haggas horses returning from a break can need the run - she was already beaten twice at odds before her last, and stepping back up to 1m4f for a filly who's shown her best form fresher is a slight risk. Ammoony's trajectory (2,2,1,2) is rock solid and she looks the most progressive filly in the field, capable of building on a recent victory. The consistent upward placing pattern combined with fair weight (133lbs) and a career-best expected trip suits her running style - she looks vulnerable only to a leader/spoiler potentially through the market. At a realistic each-way/win price given the market likely has Kissmehoneyhoney favourite, Ammoony offers the better risk/reward given her tighter, more progressive recent form.