Bangor-on-Dee 3:25 Result

Small, competitive-looking field of five. Kiwi de Cotte's recent form line 1-P131 shows he's a horse in good form when completing - a win and consistent placing figures (1,3,1) sandwiched around a pulled-up effort, suggesting he's landed on a workable mark and is progressive for a powerful Skelton yard that knows how to place horses to win off the right weight. Harry Skelton takes the ride, a strong booking signalling stable confidence. He races off the lowest OR (117) of the confirmed contenders but his figures suggest he's better than that mark on his day, and the yard's course/hurdles strike rate with Dan Skelton is generally strong. Ernest Gray and Roger Pol carry more weight off higher marks but both have interrupted or moderate recent form (166-42 and 17-698 respectively) with the concerning end-figures suggesting some vulnerability, and Roger Pol in particular has been well below his best recently. Secret Trix for Olly Murphy has been running well enough (23-322) but hasn't scored in a while and is up against fresher, more progressive rivals. Speed Davis looks held on form and is up in class/trip questions remain. Overall, Kiwi de Cotte's blend of recent scoring form, lighter weight, and strong stable/jockey booking make him the best value bet in a moderate contest, even without being an obvious market leader.