Bangor-on-Dee 2:50 Result

Thickthorn Tom's form line 212111 stands out from every other runner in this small field - he has won four in a row and hasn't finished outside the top two in six starts. That kind of relentless progression, culminating in a recent win just 8 days ago, points to a horse in career-best form and a yard with him firing on all cylinders. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton combine to strong effect over fences, and the booking of the stable's own big-race jockey (rather than a conditional) signals confidence. He's the lowest-rated horse on OR (107) but his rating is clearly behind his true current form given the winning streak - handicappers are often playing catch-up with a horse improving this fast, and he looks under-rated relative to the porridge of form shown by his rivals. Sure Touch (051-34) and Tamarind Bay (23-11U, with a last-time unseated) both have holes in their recent form, while Homme Public and Regal Renaissance are progressive but less battle-tested at this level, and Presentandcounting is old and hasn't shown the same sustained sequence. The step up to 3m is the query mark for Thickthorn Tom given his sire Ocovango and unproven at this trip, but his relentless attitude and the tongue-tie suggest he's a fighter who should cope, and stamina influences from Flemensfirth (damsire) support the test. Backing the horse in the form of his life, with connections clearly pushing forward (quick backup run, feature jockey), represents the best combination of solid chance and value in a race lacking a standout on ratings alone.