Wolverhampton (AW) 7:30 Result

This is a weak Class 6 3yo handicap and Ernie McCrew's recent form reads strongest: 552631 shows consistent improvement culminating in a recent win, with the 3 and 6 either side of that win at a similar level. He races off a fair mark of 54, is drawn 7 (workable), wears cheekpieces suggesting the yard is trying to sharpen him for the job, and is fresh having run 16 days ago - clearly fit and progressive. Taylor Fisher takes the ride but the key angle is the horse's trajectory: three of his last four runs have been within a length or two of winning form, and the actual win in that sequence confirms he handles this type of contest. Compare that to the class of Arouse (OR 60, top-weight, but modest recent form 46-6) and Roserunner (OR59, but 98 days off and error-strewn form figures -25593) who both look vulnerable on profile. Coxy's Star's -54049 is patchy and she's stepping into a stronger looking field than her recent efforts suggest she's ready for. Ahead of Fashion (245648) is consistent but seems to plateau rather than progress, and Yes Waliim's 746126 also shows a similar was-there-or-thereabouts profile but without the same closing statement of a win. Ernie McCrew's improving figures, recent scoring effort, and manageable weight (129lbs) tip the balance for me. He looks the horse whose form figures best support taking a swing at a price bigger than the housed favourites like Arouse or Roserunner, who carry more weight for what looks average current form.