Stratford 7:15 Result

Jack Doyen carries the strongest recent form of anyone in this modest Class 5 - his last two runs read 2-1, showing he's arrived at a big peak with a recent win at this sort of level. He's a proven top-weight-class performer (OR 90, top rated bar Bobbarelli) who's clearly progressive rather than one treading water. The blinkers addition looks to have sharpened him up, and connections (Ben Case) look to have him fresh after a break of just over three months, timed to strike while fit. Bobbarelli (OR99) looks the market man on pure rating but his recent form figures (22-329) show he's tailed off after a promising start to last season and his big weight (168lbs) is a concern in a race like this - he may be vulnerable to fresher, in-form types. Youdecide has been well touted but his sole finish last term was an inconclusive P after a long layoff, and 151 days off is a query. Pescatorius has been running consistently without winning (5535-3) suggesting he's not quite crossing the line, and gelding to a place rather than a winning slot. The rest are lower-rated and have question marks over class/fitness. Jack Doyen's yard has course/trip form and the improving profile stands out as best combination of solid recent evidence and easier conditions than Bobbarelli faces under big weight. I make him the swing selection at a fair each-way/win price versus what should be a warm market elsewhere.