Southwell (AW) 2:42 Result

Faeberon is a lightly-raced 3yo for a powerful Crisford yard, carrying a big weight pull off a competitive OR of 73 while conceding little to rivals actually racing off similar marks. His recent form 4-8313 shows he's progressive, with a clear win last time and a 3rd before that, both at a stage where he's clearly working out how to win. First-time/continued cheekpieces (p) should sharpen him further, and top jockey Jack Mitchell riding suggests stable confidence. Draw 1 is workable at Southwell AW. Everyoneknowsadave is the obvious market pick on his 643214 profile and has course-and-distance experience, but he's now up in class/weight after a string of solid efforts and his best figures look on a par with, not clearly superior to, Faeberon's. Saxophonist and New Bay Star are both interesting types down in trip/weight but neither has shown quite the same scope or trainer power. Golspie and Carwyn look held on form, while Bearwith's inconsistent finishing sequence (244912) makes him workmanlike rather than progressive. Overall this looks a fairly open, competitive AW handicap, and Faeberon's improving profile, big yard, and today's headgear tweak give him the strongest case to win at a fair price, even if not the market's most obvious selection.