Newton Abbot 4:10 Result

Small four-runner field where the top-rated horse looks clearly the one to beat. Kom Tu Voudras carries the highest OR (115), a 9lb-plus edge on the rest of this field, and has Harry Cobden booked by connections of McManus/Bramley, a strong stable/jockey combo signalling confidence. Recent form figures 164F12 show she's racing consistently and was placed last time out only 10 days ago, keeping fitness sharp and suggesting she's fresh into this. The tongue-tie headgear addition may be aiding concentration after the odd blip (the F). Ellerton (-12P12) and Kilnew Supreme (2/222-) both carry questions - Ellerton has an unreliable recent CV including a pulled-up run, and Kilnew Supreme hasn't run for 159 days, a big context break that raises fitness doubts even for a Nicholls yard. Kittys Glance is in fair form (1-2322) but is lowest rated in the field at 105 and has to find lumps of ground on official ratings to trouble the top-weight. In a small, weak-looking field, class and rating usually tell, and Kom Tu Voudras' figure advantage combined with recent robust form and a strong jockey booking make her the standout on assessment before even weighing market price. This looks like a race where the favourite is fancied on solid grounds rather than by default.