Newton Abbot 3:12 Result

Small three-runner field but Thickthorn Tom's form line is the standout: 121112 shows relentless consistency and improvement, with three wins from his last six starts and only narrow defeats in between. He's fresh off a run just 14 days ago, suggesting he's fit and ready, and Dan Skelton's yard combined with Harry Skelton in the saddle is a strong professional combination who know how to get novices round and winning. His OR of 117 is lower than Intosomethinggood's 133, but that rating gap is largely theoretical - Intosomethinggood has been off 188 days, and his form figures (284P1-) show a fair amount of inconsistency including a pulled-up run, with his big rating built on a smaller sample and a big layoff since his best effort. Big layoffs for novice chasers are a real risk, especially stepping back in against a fit, in-form rival. It's A Breeze has been progressive too (-P4112) but his rating of 106 is the lowest of the three and he looks to be up against a leap in class facing the top-rated horse. In such a small field, chances are the market will make Intosomethinggood a short-priced favourite purely on rating, but the fitness and momentum clearly favour Thickthorn Tom, who looks the most solid, progressive, race-fit type of the trio, and represents the better bet against a fitness-doubtful, rusty topweight.