Newton Abbot 7:12 Result

Small four-runner field where recent, consistent form is king. Thickthorn Tom's figures read -21211, showing progressive improvement with two wins from his last three starts and never out of the frame in that sequence. He's the youngest at 6, still on an upward curve, and races off a fair mark of 107 relative to the fitness/form he's carrying. Dan Skelton's yard and Harry Skelton riding gives a strong, in-form combination who know how to place and ride these types to win. The blinkers/tongue-tie combo (tb) suggests they've sharpened him up and it's working, evidenced by the recent scoreline. It's A Breeze also has a solid recent line (F-P411) and looks the main threat, but Thickthorn Tom's fresher figures and higher-percentage placed record (only missing the frame twice in six runs) give him the edge. Quick Sharpener's form (5PP-10) is much patchier with pulled-ups mixed in, hard to trust fully, while Lady Kara, despite a smart recent win, has an unreliable overall sequence including an unseated rider and is stepping up in class/grade against these in a stronger book. With only four runners, tactical racing could suit the horse in best current form, and that's clearly Thickthorn Tom right now — he should track the pace and pounce, and looks the value versus what will likely be a short-priced favourite in Lady Kara.