Newmarket 3:35 Result

Small, high-quality field of 4. Fortitudine is unbeaten in 2, highest RPR/OR-relative profile by a Dubawi (proven staying influence) out of a Street Cry mare, trained by Appleby with Buick retained - a stable that targets these black-type middle-distance races precisely with progressive types. His figure of 105 OR with just two starts and both wins suggests untapped upside, and the step to 1m4f looks squarely in his wheelhouse given the pedigree (Dubawi/Street Cry line thrives over further as horses mature). Kokbastau is unproven at this trip having won a maiden last time and being freshly upped, and while his OR of 106 is the highest, his three-race sequence (6-3111 reading) shows one blip; he's respected but the market gap is thin. Castlemont, Fortitudine's stable-companion, is also unbeaten in 2 (11) but lower-rated (98) and drawn widest at 3 - he looks the second string with Loughnane up rather than the stable's big artillery. Archers Bay has more experience (139413) but has already been beaten multiple times and rates lowest here at 100 - he looks the workmanlike sort in this grade, the type to make the frame rather than win. With Buick jocking off Castlemont to ride Fortitudine, that's a clear stable signal of intent. I'll side with the Godolphin colt with the stronger overall RPR figure and the big rider booking.