Newcastle (AW) 5:00 Result

Mr Moonshine is in excellent recent form (523310) with a clear upward trajectory, running to a career-best when third last time and winning before that. He's a lightly-raced 3yo carrying the least weight of the main contenders (136lbs) off a fair mark of 70, with 3lb claimer Warren Fentiman aboard adding further weight relief. He's racing consistently and quickly (13 days since last run), suggesting a yard with him fit and ready, and the Fahey stable know how to place improving sorts. Peers at the same official mark (70) include Moon Sniper, Rodoya, Clansman and L'Eagle Aid, but none have the same freshness of form - Moon Sniper is fitness-doubtful after 164 days off, Rodoya's form figures (386-88) are moderate, Clansman is a veteran who was workmanlike in finishing 7th last time, and L'Eagle Aid's form (353363) shows he keeps missing out, flattering to deceive. Mr Moonshine's trajectory and younger profile give him real upside at this level, and with a positive, improving profile he looks capable of defying a workmanlike series of thirds to finally land one. The application of headgear (tp) first time could be the final piece sharpening him up. Junkyard Dog is the chief market threat on a progressive profile (8-9214) with potential first-time visor, but his missed run pattern and the booking of Andrew Mullen suggest that one is respected rather than feared - he looks the one to beat for forecast purposes but Mr Moonshine's class edge and fresher claiming jockey give the stronger each-way and win case.