Newcastle (AW) 5:20 Result

This maiden fillies race is littered with unexposed first/second-time-out types, but Tradittion is the one with the clearest evidence of both ability and progression. Her 7642 form line shows steady improvement culminating in a close-up 4th last time, and with an official rating of 69 she rates above the only other rated runner, Bahia Bonita (66). She races in blinkers for the first time today which, combined with the improving profile under a fast-finishing effort last time, suggests she's finally working out how to finish races off. Tim Easterby is a shrewd operator with two-year-old fillies at this level and Duran Fentiman takes over, a booking that suggests stable confidence. Draw 8 is workable at Newcastle's polytrack 6f, which doesn't heavily favour any particular gate. Bahia Bonita is the market alternative with her own solid form (43) and rating, but she was already beaten by some of these when placed, and Tradittion's trajectory looks stronger. The unraced/lightly raced types from Varian, Menzies and Furtado's yards carry obvious risk given lack of any public form, and while any could be smart, backing the unknown at big odds is a leap of faith compared to Tradittion's proven, progressive profile. She looks the most solid, rated performer in the field with room for more improvement and represents the best combination of proven form and value in a race full of question marks.