Newcastle (AW) 5:10 Result

Dream Forever's form figures 240001 show a horse in career-best shape, culminating in a recent win last time out, and he's racing consistently at a low ebb where he clearly gets competitive with this grade. He's young (3yo) and still likely improving, with blinkers on to sharpen him further. The rest of this field is largely stuffed with OR 50-53 types who've been treading water - Reenie's Dream is out of form (-99488), Asadjumeirah is a well-exposed 8yo who hasn't won since way back in his sequence, and Northern Tempest/Liquid Cooled are moderate. Dream Forever's OR of 48 looks conservative given the trajectory of that form line - a horse winning last time and racing consistently well is often underrated by the handicapper before his mark catches up. Draw 5 is fine for 6f at Newcastle, no bias concerns. Jockey Jack Nicholls takes handy 3lb allowance. This looks like the type of yard/horse combo primed to follow up, and with him not the most fancied on paper (lower weight/OR than several rivals) there should be some value in the market. I'll take him as the win selection over the higher-rated but out-of-form or stale rivals.