Kempton (AW) 7:00 Result

Venetian Lion is in red-hot form with figures reading 962111 - three wins on the bounce and clearly progressive under Haggas, a trainer who excels with lightly-raced sorts stepping up in class/trip. He's fresh off a win just 13 days ago, showing he's fit, in form and the yard has him firing. Tom Marquand takes over which is a positive booking from a stable that knows exactly what it has. At only 3yo with an OR of 81 he looks the type to still be ahead of the assessor given the upward trajectory - handicappers often struggle to peg back a horse improving through a sequence like this. Draw 2 is workable at Kempton AW. The one query is whether the handicapper has now caught him after three straight wins, but the manner of those victories suggests more improvement to come, and he looks the class of this weak-ish field on a rating basis relative to trend. Main dangers: Elan d'Or (85 OR, in-form colt for Stuart Williams, also won last time) and Silent City who has solid recent placed form for Varian, but neither has the same be-fide winning sequence/market confidence as Venetian Lion. Studious and Atlas Mountain both need to find more. Given the strength of the form and positive trainer/jockey angle, Venetian Lion looks the most reliable source of a winning bet even without being a standout price - the formful, progressive types tend to be undervalued relative to one-off improvers in cards like this.