Fontwell 4:40 Result

Small three-runner field, so it's about picking the strongest form horse. Martin's Denuo has the highest OR (108), is lightly raced and clearly progressive - form figures F-1114 show three wins from last four including his latest run just 9 days ago, indicating a fit, in-form horse building confidence. David Pipe is a strong yard with a young, well-supported conditional in Corcoran claiming valuable weight off (5lb). At just 4 he is unexposed compared to his rivals aged 8 and 10, and the sequence of consecutive wins/places suggests he's progressing quickly up the ratings and handling a step up in class. The headgear (hood) addition also suggests conditioning for a sharper effort. Imperial Bede's recent form (52-544) is moderate with a run of mid-pack finishes, and Midnight Jewel's form figures (1PP-55) show two pulled-up efforts sandwiched between a win, suggesting inconsistency, and he's now a 10-year-old who may be past his best, albeit with the addition of cheekpieces to sharpen him up. Given the weight-for-age scale, a rapidly progressive novice-type chaser with the highest rating and strong recent form should be well capable of defying top weight in a small, weak-looking field. This makes him the standout on ability and market money is likely to reflect that, but with only three runners, value can still be found in confidence of the placing/win being straightforward given the form gap.