Ffos Las 4:55 Verdict
Noah's Ark Christmas Party Race Day Handicap Stakes
The Verdict
FormCast selectionFlightofthephoenixConfidence 4/5
Form reads 3-7721, showing progressive improvement and a recent win last time out just 18 days ago - clearly fit and in form. Trained by Charles Hills who knows how to place a filly like this, and she carries the joint-second lowest weight suggesting the handicapper hasn't fully caught up with her latest win. Her sire Phoenix Of Spain throws horses that stay well and improve with racing over middle distances, and this 1m4f trip looks ideal given her trajectory of 7-7-2-1 finishing positions, tightening up each time. Draw 2 is workable at Ffos Las over this trip, not a major disadvantage.
Compare to Hibernate (form 211524) who looks solid but the '4' and less consistent pattern plus a longer 37-day layoff makes me slightly less certain of instant peak fitness, and Crackergee's recent form (5-4415) is more mixed. Raintown (342312) is consistent but has already shown a ceiling with those minor placings and a 2nd; he's yet to nail the win. King's Castle is the outsider in weight terms with a wide swings-form and is already 9 - less scope for further improvement. Luan and Shaffron are up against it on official ratings (60) with too much class edge required against these near-70-rated types.
Flightofthephoenix's last-time-out win, fast improvement curve, feather-weight and trainer competence make her the standout value alongside a realistic置 chance to beat this modest field. I expect she'll start around 3/1-4/1 which represents an edge given her clear upward trajectory.
Runners & Form
| No. | Draw | Horse | Age | Jockey | Trainer | OR | Form | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 70 | 211524 | — | |||
| 2 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 5-4415 | — | |||
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 68 | 342312 | — |