Doncaster 1:45 Result

This looks a strong but sortable Group 2. Gentle Hurricane (form 12) has the highest OR (106) and was placed in a Group event last time, giving him solid claims, while Silver Dominion (1422) is progressive but has already been below winning form in his last two starts, suggesting he's flattered to deceive at this level. Sergei Diaghilev (191) for Ballydoyle has talent on the book but the middle "9" suggests an below-par effort somewhere in that sequence, and O'Brien juveniles at this trip can be workmanlike first-time out at a track like this. Desert Castle stands out. He's a well-bred Frankel colt out of a Dubawi mare for Godolphin/Appleby, unbeaten in his sole start (form figure "1"), and that formline is unexposed and likely franked by quality given the way Godolphin/Appleby target these Group 2 juvenile events with fresh, well-drilled types. A 36-day gap points to being trained specifically for a nice pot like this, and Appleby's cherry-picking of black-type opportunities for lightly raced types is a strong stable-confidence angle. Billy Loughnane taking the ride for the powerhouse operation is another plus. Being unexposed at this level, with looks of untapped scope, he rates the most likely to improve sharply from a single run, and the manner of that win (presumably visually taking) combined with the market likely underplaying a one-run horse against `form` horses gives an edge. The 7f trip suits Frankel's stock well, and Dubawi is a superb broodmare sire for speed/middle distance types. I prefer Desert Castle's upside over the more exposed rivals in a race that looks there to be won by whichever contender is still srogressing, not one who's already had to graft for placed efforts.