Cartmel 3:53 Result

Roysse's form figures 336-11 show two wins on the bounce last time out, clearly progressive and arriving with genuine momentum. He carries a competitive OR of 122 near the top of the weights but is fully justified by recent form, and Ben Pauling is a shrewd trainer over jumps who clearly has this type fit for the job. The step up in class hasn't stopped him winning last twice, suggesting he's still ahead of the handicapper. The 73-day layoff is a slight query but Pauling's yard often brings them back sharp, and the horse's trajectory (3-3-6-1-1) shows a horse finding his form at the right time. Main market rivals like Zillow (126) and My Chiquita (124) carry more weight and have less consistent recent profiles (Zillow's F00-7P is patchy with a fall in there; My Chiquita hasn't strung two wins together). Saligo Bay is interesting on best form (1105-8) but the -8 last time is a concern and he needs to bounce back. Roysse looks the horse type on the up, with a trainer/jockey combo capable of exploiting a fair mark, and represents the best blend of proven recent winning form and up-to-date placement in the weights. I'm backing the improving handicapper over the more exposed types at the head of the weights.