Bellewstown 6:05 Result

Fastnet Crystal holds the top rating (121) in this weak-looking mares' event and has the strongest recent form figures (20-12), including a recent win. Joseph O'Brien and J J Slevin combine with a mare who is clearly progressive - a second and a win in her last two starts shows she's peaking now, and the tongue tie may sharpen her further. She's proven at around this trip and on good ground. Easter Bonnet (Mullins/Hayes) is the obvious market rival with a solid recent 1st, but her formline (1P-041) shows more inconsistency including a pulled-up effort, and she's rated a couple of pounds below Fastnet Crystal. Daboya has upside on pedigree (Gleneagles) but her form figure of a solid 2nd/1st is unproven compared to Fastnet Crystal's demonstrated scoring ability at this level. Ardeen Joy's form is more moderate (3-F310) with an inconsistent pattern including a fall. The market leaders make sense but Fastnet Crystal's rating edge plus being freshest into a stronger recent trend of form makes her the value out of the leading contenders - not just the highest-rated, but the one whose profile fits today's conditions best.