Ballinrobe 6:40 Result

This is a wide-open 19-runner handicap chase, but Farrokh stands out on recent form and profile. His figures 46U-14 show a horse improving with a recent win, and he's now stepped up with a big weight but the mark still looks workable off OR106 given the trainer Barry Connell also owns and clearly fancies this. Fresh 14 days ago suggests they're pressing on with a fit, progressive type. The top two in the weights (Leave In Secret and Mo Ghille Mar at 110) both carry the theoretical top-rated tags but have question marks: Leave In Secret's form 7-7432 shows workmanlike efforts without a recent win, and Mo Ghille Mar's -17741 is solid but she's a mare stepping around in a big field off a break pattern that includes a couple of blank efforts. Lady Doyanne (108) has a consistent-ish 4322 sequence but hasn't scored recently either. Farrokh's recent win last time out, allied with a trainer/owner combo that clearly means business (Connell training and owning), gives him the strongest case of "improving type peaking at the right time." The yielding ground and 2m1f trip suit a fast-improving stepping-up type better than materially older, more exposed rivals like Custers Mistake (401 days off) or Itsalonglongroad (12yo, blinkers, erratic form). In a big-field handicap like this, backing a horse with genuine upward trajectory and a positive recent piece of form is the right approach rather than the top-rated older, more exposed sorts.