Ayr 3:08 Result

Star Cast's form line 211234 is the strongest in the race - two wins and four other frame finishes in her last six, running consistently competitive races. Top-rated alongside Mehmas Champion on official rating (80), she's clearly progressive and improving with each run, unlike most in this field who are either fading (Mehmas Champion's -69001 shows one placed effort buried in mostly poor runs) or plateauing. She races off the same weight as the top-rated horse despite arguably stronger recent form. Fillies bred by Almanzor out of a Pivotal mare often carry a stamina/versatility profile suited to testing/heavy ground over middle distances, and her recent 17-day turnaround suggests she's fit and the yard is happy with how she's working. The booking of a claimer (Jake Dickson) helps on weight but doesn't detract from what looks like a filly on the upgrade. Mehmas Champion is likely to head the market given the OR and Tudhope's booking, but his form figures are moth-eaten compared to Star Cast's near-flawless recent sequence. Mano Chicago and Kokanee are workmanlike but have already been giving weight away/chances without winning against similar or weaker. On heavy ground over 1m2f, a filly proven to act and win recently, with quality form figures, represents the strongest combination of ability and current form. I'll oppose the OR-topper in favour of the in-form filly.